Prospective crop yield and income return based on a retrospective analysis of a long-term rainfed agriculture experiment in Nebraska

Nebraska, US, is projected to face increased winter and spring precipitation, drier summers as the climate changes over next 20 30 years. Agricultural adaptations adjustments would be critical mitigate adverse impact of change achieve global food security. Focusing on climatic projections for our objective analyze data from a long-term (31 years; 1986–2016) rainfed agriculture experiment determine how past years, that had similar conditions future - wetter (WW), (WS), dry summer (DS), responded these attempt describe near-future (upcoming 20–30 years) corn soybean yield, income returns in northeast Nebraska. First, we used meteorological drought index, years with (6 WW, 4 WS, DS) 9 all normal (AN) seasons during study period. Second, performed linear mixed-model analysis variance compare treatment (tillage: no-till, disk-till plow-till; crop rotation: continuous-corn, corn-soybean; Nitrogen rates: 0–160 kg-N/ha) interaction their effect yield between (WW, WS AN Finally, partial budgeting calculate risk across imposed management practices. Results indicate DS showed reductions 9.1%, 10.9%, 38.6% compared an average season which was 11.3 Mg/ha. Compared 3.6 Mg/ha, yields were + 1.4%, ?3.3%, ? 31.8% DS, respectively. These differences did not significantly affect return WW (900 $/ha). However, total regardless pre-season about 40% CS $/ha) CC (800 $/ha), Soybean more stable than corn, resulted corn-soybean rotation system always being higher profitable. Our recommended practice disk tillage 80 kg-N/ha could result highest near-future. Such experimental studies can serve important complement crop-model get improved insight into returns.